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多地累计降水量破4月历史纪录！专家详解背后缘由_我的网站

一 |     据中国气象局官微消息，4月19日8时至21日8时，贵州南部、江南南部、华南北部和中东部等地的部分地区出现暴雨到大暴雨、局地特大暴雨。中国气象局于4月18日8时30分启动暴雨三级应急响应。

二 |     WARSAW, Poland -- Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk declared the beginning of a new era for his country after opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday's parliamentary election to oust the governing nationalist conservative party.That party, Law and Justice, has bickered with allies and faced accusations of eroding rule of law at home in its eight years in power. It appeared that voters were mobilized like never before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the communist authorities in 1989. In some places people were still in line when polling officially closed, but all were allowed to vote. If the result predicted by an exit poll holds, Law and Justice won but also lost. It got more seats than any other party but not enough to be able to lead a government that can pass laws in the legislature. The Ipsos exit poll suggested that Law and Justice obtained 200 seats. Its potential partner, the far-right Confederation got 12 seats, a showing the party acknowledged was a defeat.It also showed that three opposition parties have likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm. The largest of the groups is Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, a former prime minister and former European Union president. It won 31.6% of votes, the exit poll said. “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” Tusk told his cheering supporters.“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is end of Law and Justice rule," Tusk added.Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the ambiguous result. He told supporters at his headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote, according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row. “We must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this (political) project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed," Kaczynski said.If the result holds, and Law and Justice is the single party with the most seats, then it would most likely get the first chance to try to build a government.It falls to President Andrzej Duda, who is an ally of Law and Justice, to tap a party to try to form a government.Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Polsat News that Duda “will entrust the mission of forming the government to the winning party and in this first step we will certainly try to build a parliamentary majority."Three opposition parties, Tusk's Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, a leader of the Left party, vowed to work with the others to “create a democratic, strong, reasonable and predictable government.”Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, the head of election campaign for Third Way, called it a “huge day for our democracy.”Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.At stake are the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.LGBTQ+ rights activist Bart Staszewski called it the end of a “nightmare” for himself as a gay man and others.“This is just the beginning of reclaiming of our country. The fight is ahead but we are breathing fresh air today,” Staszewski said.Environmental activist Dominika Lasota was emotional with relief, saying “we have our future.”Law and Justice has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.During the campaign many Poles described the vote as the most important one since 1989, when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.Turnout Sunday appeared to be even higher than the 63% of voters who turned out for the 1989 election that led to the ouster of the communists. Despite many uncertainties ahead, what appeared certain was that support for the governing party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 when it won nearly 44% of the vote, its popularity dented by high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.There is a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists. A political change could open the way for the EU to release billions of euros in funding that has been withheld over what the EU viewed as democratic erosion.Piotr Buras, of the European Council of Foreign Relations, said the opposition had gained from “growing fatigue” with the government among Poles, "beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals.” The fate of Poland's relationship with Ukraine was also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in Russia's war. Its poor showing will be a relief for Kyiv.A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues was held simultaneously. Some government opponents called on voters to boycott the referendum, saying it was an attempt by the government to galvanize its supporters. Many voters were seen refusing to take part in the referendum.___Associated Press journalists Kwiyeon Ha, Pietro De Cristofaro and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。4月21日10时，中央气象台继续发布暴雨橙色预警、强对流天气黄色预警。　　多地累计降水量突破4月历史纪录，珠江流域北江发生2024年第2号洪水　　19日8时至21日8时，广西北部、广东中北部、湖南东南部、江西南部累计降水量达100毫米至200毫米，其中广西东北部、广东西北部达250毫米至350毫米，局地超过400毫米。最大小时降水量达40毫米至80毫米，广西南宁、广东茂名局地超过100毫米。

三 | 20日8时30分至9时15分，广西壮族自治区梧州市藤县发生中等强度龙卷风（相当于最大瞬时风力达15级）。　　受强降水影响，珠江流域北江发生2024年第2号洪水。21日早晨，北江下游控制站石角水文站流量为14900立方米/秒，已经超过2024年第1号洪水，并在广西、广东造成多条中小河流水位超警戒水位，多地发生地质灾害。　　气象部门密切关注此次强降水过程，中国气象局与水利部联合发布山洪灾害气象风险提醒，并联合自然资源部提前启动2024年度全国地质灾害气象风险联合预警业务。广西、广东省（自治区）气象局与当地水利厅、自然资源厅联合发布山洪灾害与地质灾害气象风险预警。　　多重因素导致近期南方降雨偏多偏强，未来强降水过程多仍需加强防范　　中央气象台首席预报员马学款介绍，4月以来，副热带高压比常年同期偏强，有利于南海和孟加拉湾水汽向南方地区输送，同时高原槽和南支系统活跃，导致南方地区强降水过程频繁、降水持续时间偏长。

四 | 另外，江南、华南等地气温比常年同期明显偏高，大气含水量丰富、不稳定能量高，导致对流发展旺盛、降雨强度高，多地累计降水量突破4月历史纪录。　　中央气象台预计，4月21日至22日，江南南部和东部、华南中东部和南部等地仍有强降水，局地有大暴雨并伴有雷暴大风或冰雹等强对流天气。

五 | 23日，华南地区的降雨将明显减弱，但华南南部沿海部分地区仍有大到暴雨。另外，在25日前后，贵州、江南、华南等地还将有一次较强降水过程。　　马学款提示，未来几天，我国南方地区强降水过程多、局地雨强大，并可能伴有风雹天气，公众需及时关注当地气象部门发布的预报预警信息，在强降水时段减少外出，避免在山涧、河道等低洼地带逗留，注意防雨防雷电，防范山洪、滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害风险。相关部门要注意城市低洼地带及时排水，加固户外设施，防范强风对临时搭建物、高空作业装置和人员、航运等的安全威胁。　　（中国小康网综合中国气象局官微）。

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